Modelling the airline costs of delay propagation

Abstract

Reactionary delays constitute nearly half of all delay minutes in Europe. A capped, multi-component model is presented for estimating reactionary delay costs, as a non-linear function of primary delay duration. Maximum Take-Off Weights, historically established as a charging mechanism, may be used to model delay costs. Current industry reporting on delay is flight-centric. Passenger-centric metrics are needed to better understand delay propagation. In ATM, it is important to take account of contrasting flight- and passenger-centric effects, caused by cancellations, for example. Costs to airlines and passenger disutility will both continue to be driven by delay relative to the original schedule.