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Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport

Dennis, Nigel (2002) Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport. Journal of Air Transport Management, 8 (5). pp. 313-324. ISSN 0969-6997

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(02)00012-1

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for assessing the future route network and flight schedule at a medium-sized European airport. The starting point is the existing origin and destination demand from the base airport across the world. This is expanded using growth rates by country or region for the period up to year 2015. The future origin and destination demand is then converted into route traffic, subject to a threshold for direct service. Where demand falls below this level, traffic is reallocated via various appropriate hubs. A model of frequency and aircraft size is applied to estimate the future air service on each route and a schedule created, allocating these flights to specific times of day. The scenario where the base airport operates as a hub is then investigated. This involves identifying a suitable hub model, considering geographical and competitive issues. The origin and destination demand is increased, resulting in an enlarged network of routes. Flights are then scheduled within the constraints of an optimal wave pattern. The outputs are of considerable interest in long-term airport planning and also offer an insight into future airline network strategies and opportunities.

Item Type:Article
Research Community:University of Westminster > Architecture and the Built Environment, School of
ID Code:51
Deposited On:29 Sep 2005
Last Modified:22 Oct 2009 12:31

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