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A continuous time Markov model for the length of stay of elderly people in institutional long-term care

Xie, Haifeng and Chaussalet, Thierry J. and Millard, Peter H. (2005) A continuous time Markov model for the length of stay of elderly people in institutional long-term care. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 168 (1). pp. 51-61. ISSN 0964-1998

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Official URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j...

Abstract

The paper develops a Markov model in continuous time for the length of stay of elderly people moving within and between residential home care and nursing home care. A procedure to determine the structure of the model and to estimate parameters by maximum likelihood is presented. The modelling approach was applied to 4 years' placement data from the social services department of a London borough. The results in this London borough suggest that, for residential home care, a single-exponential distribution with mean 923 days is adequate to provide a good description of the pattern of the length of stay, whereas, for nursing home care, a mixed exponential distribution with means 59 days (short stay) and 784 days (long stay) is required, and that 64% of admissions to nursing home care will become long-stay residents. The implications of these findings and the advantages of the proposed modelling approach in the general context of long-term care are discussed.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:Online ISSN 1467-985X
Research Community:University of Westminster > Electronics and Computer Science, School of
ID Code:938
Deposited On:01 Dec 2005
Last Modified:19 Oct 2009 12:46

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