Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies

Diekmann, Y., Smith, D., Gerbault, P., Dyble, M., Page, A.E., Chaudhary, N., Migliano, A.B. and Thomas, M.G. 2017. Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 114 (31), pp. 8205-8210. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619583114

TitleAccurate age estimation in small-scale societies
AuthorsDiekmann, Y.
Smith, D.
Gerbault, P.
Dyble, M.
Page, A.E.
Chaudhary, N.
Migliano, A.B.
Thomas, M.G.
Abstract

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire.

KeywordsBayesian age estimation; Gibbs sampler; fertility; hunter-gatherers; life history
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Journal citation114 (31), pp. 8205-8210
ISSN0027-8424
Year2017
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences
Accepted author manuscript
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619583114
Publication dates
Published10 Jul 2017

Related outputs

Author Correction: Dairying, diseases and the evolution of lactase persistence in Europe
Evershed, R., Davey Smith, G., Roffet-Salque, M., Timpson, A., Diekmann, Y., Lyon, Matthew S, Cramp, L., Casanova, Emmanuelle, Smyth, J., Whelton, H., Dunne, J., Brychova, Veronika, Šoberl, Lucija, Gerbault, P., Gillis, Rosalind E, Heyd, Volker, Johnson, Emily, Kendall, Iain, Manning, Katie, Marciniak, Arkadiusz, Outram, A., Vigne, Jean-Denis, Shennan, Stephen, Bevan, A., Colledge, Sue, Allason-Jones, Lyndsay, Amkreutz, L., Anders, Alexandra, Arbogast, Rose-Marie, Bălăşescu, Adrian, Bánffy, E., Barclay, Alistair, Behrens, Anja, Bogucki, P., Carrancho Alonso, Ángel, Carretero, José Miguel, Cavanagh, Nigel, Claßen, E., Collado Giraldo, Hipolito, Conrad, Matthias, Csengeri, Piroska, Czerniak, Lech, Dębiec, Maciej, Denaire, A., Domboróczki, László, Donald, Christina, Ebert, Julia, Evans, Christopher, Francés-Negro, Marta, Gronenborn, Detlef, Haack, Fabian, Halle, Matthias, Hamon, Caroline, Hülshoff, Roman, Ilett, Michael, Iriarte, E., Jakucs, János, Jeunesse, Christian, Johnson, Melanie, Jones, Andy M, Karul, Necmi, Kiosak, Dmytro, Kotova, Nadezhda, Krause, Rüdiger, Kretschmer, Saskia, Krüger, Marta, Lefranc, Philippe, Lelong, Olivia, Lenneis, E., Logvin, Andrey, Lüth, Friedrich, Marton, Tibor, Marley, Jane, Mortimer, Richard, Oosterbeek, Luiz, Oross, Krisztián, Pavúk, Juraj, Pechtl, Joachim, Pétrequin, Pierre, Pollard, Joshua, Pollard, Richard, Powlesland, D., Pyzel, Joanna, Raczky, Pál, Richardson, Andrew, Rowe, Peter, Rowland, Stephen, Rowlandson, Ian, Saile, Thomas, Sebők, Katalin, Schier, Wolfram, Schmalfuß, Germo, Sharapova, Svetlana, Sharp, Helen, Sheridan, A., Shevnina, Irina, Sobkowiak-Tabaka, Iwona, Stadler, Peter, Stäuble, Harald, Stobbe, Astrid, Stojanovski, Darko, Tasić, Nenad, van Wijk, Ivo, Vostrovská, Ivana, Vuković, Jasna, Wolfram, Sabine, Zeeb-Lanz, Andrea and Thomas, M. 2022. Author Correction: Dairying, diseases and the evolution of lactase persistence in Europe. Nature.

Disentangling Immediate Adaptive Introgression from Selection on Standing Introgressed Variation in Humans
Jagoda, E., Lawson, D.J., Wall, J.D., Lambert, D., Muller, C., Westaway, M., Leavesley, M., Capellini, T.D., Lahr, M.M., Gerbault, P., Thomas, M.G., Migliano, A.B., Willerslev, E., Metspalu , M. and Pagani, L. 2018. Disentangling Immediate Adaptive Introgression from Selection on Standing Introgressed Variation in Humans. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 35 (3), pp. 623-630. https://doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msx314

Dairying history and the evolution of lactase persistence
Gerbault, P. and Roffet-Salque, M. 2017. Dairying history and the evolution of lactase persistence. Cahiers de Nutrition et de Diététique. 52 (Supp. 1), pp. S19-S24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0007-9960(17)30195-5

World-wide distributions of lactase persistence alleles and the complex effects of recombination and selection
Liebert, A., López, S., Jones, B.L., Montalva, N., Gerbault, P., Lau, W., Thomas, M.G., Bradman, N., Maniatis, N. and Swallow, D.M. 2017. World-wide distributions of lactase persistence alleles and the complex effects of recombination and selection. Human Genetics. 136 (11-12), p. 1445–1453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00439-017-1847-y

Investigating mitochondrial DNA relationships in Neolithic Western Europe through serial coalescent simulations
Rivollat, M., Rottier, S., Couture, C., Pemonge, M.H., Mendisco, F., Thomas, M.G., Deguilloux, M.F. and Gerbault, P. 2017. Investigating mitochondrial DNA relationships in Neolithic Western Europe through serial coalescent simulations. European Journal of Human Genetics. 25, pp. 388-392. https://doi.org/10.1038/ejhg.2016.180

Genomic analyses inform on migration events during the peopling of Eurasia
Gerbault, P. 2016. Genomic analyses inform on migration events during the peopling of Eurasia. Nature. 538 (7624), pp. 238-242. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19792

A genomic history of Aboriginal Australia
Malaspinas, A.S., Westaway, M.C., Muller, C., Sousa, V.C., Lao, O., Alves, I., Bergström, A., Athanasiadis, G., Cheng, J.Y., Crawford, J.E., Heupink, T.H., Macholdt, E., Peischl, S., Rasmussen, S., Schiffels, S., Subramanian, S., Wright, J.L., Albrechtsen, A., Barbieri, C., Dupanloup, I., Eriksson, A., Margaryan, A., Moltke, I., Pugach, I., Korneliussen, T.S., Levkivskyi, I.P., Moreno-Mayar, J.V., Ni, S., Racimo, F., Xue, Y., Sikora, M., Aghakhanian, F.A., Brucato, N., Brunak, S., Campos, P.F., Clark, W., Ellingvåg, S., Fourmile, G., Gerbault, P., Injie, D., Koki, G., Leavesley, M., Logan, B., Lynch, A., Matisoo-Smith, E.A., McAllister, P.J., Mentzer, A.J., Metspalu, M., Migliano, A.B., Murgha, L., Phipps, M.E., Pomat, W., Reynolds, D., Ricaut, F.X., Siba, P., Thomas, M.G., Wales, T., Wall, C.M., Oppenheimer, S.J., Tyler-Smith, C., Durbin, R., Dortch, J., Manica, A., Schierup, M.H., Foley, R.A., Lahr, M.M., Bowern, C., Wall, J.D., Mailund, T., Stoneking, M., Nielsen, R., Sandhu, M.S., Excoffier, L., Lambert, D.M. and Willerslev, E. 2016. A genomic history of Aboriginal Australia. Nature. 538 (7624), pp. 207-214. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18299

Statistically robust representation and comparison of mortality profiles in archaeozoology
Gerbault, P., Gillis, R., Vigne, J.D., Tresset, A., Bréhard, S. and Thomas, M.G. 2016. Statistically robust representation and comparison of mortality profiles in archaeozoology. Journal of Archaeological Science. 71, pp. 24-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2016.05.001

Competition for Cooperation: variability, benefits and heritability of relational wealth in hunter-gatherers
Chaudhary, N., Salali, G.D., Thompson, J., Rey, A., Gerbault, P., Stevenson, E.G., Dyble, M., Smith, D., Mace, R., Vinicius, L. and Migliano, A.B. 2016. Competition for Cooperation: variability, benefits and heritability of relational wealth in hunter-gatherers. Scientific Reports. 6, p. 29120 29120. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29120

Introductory Editorial: Evolutionary Genomics
Itan, Y., Pines, G. and Gerbault, P. 2016. Introductory Editorial: Evolutionary Genomics. Evolutionary Bioinformatics. 11 (Suppl 2), pp. 53-55. https://doi.org/10.4137/EBO.S39729

Forward-in-Time, Spatially Explicit Modeling Software to Simulate Genetic Lineages Under Selection
Currat, M., Gerbault, P., Di, D., Nunes, J.M. and Sanchez-Mazas, A. 2015. Forward-in-Time, Spatially Explicit Modeling Software to Simulate Genetic Lineages Under Selection. Evolutionary Bioinformatics. 11 (Supp-2), pp. 27-39. https://doi.org/10.4137/EBO.S33488

Greenlandic Inuit show genetic signatures of diet and climate adaptation
Fumagalli, M., Moltke, I., Grarup, N., Racimo, F., Bjerregaard, P., Jørgensen, M.E., Korneliussen, T.S., Gerbault, P., Skotte, L., Linneberg, A., Christensen, C., Brandslund, I., Jørgensen, T., Huerta-Sánchez, E., Schmidt, E.B., Pedersen, O., Hansen, T., Albrechtsen, A. and Nielsen, R. 2015. Greenlandic Inuit show genetic signatures of diet and climate adaptation. Science. 349 (6254), pp. 1343-1347. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab2319

Widespread exploitation of the honeybee by early Neolithic farmers
Roffet-Salque, M., Regert, M., Evershed, R.P., Outram, A.K., Cramp, L.J., Decavallas, O., Dunne, J., Gerbault, P., Mileto, S., Mirabaud, S., Paakkonen, M., Smyth, J., Soberl, L., Whelton, H.L., Alday-Ruiz, A., Asplund, H., Bartkowiak, M., Bayer-Niemeier, E., Belhouchet, L., Bernardini, F., Budja, M., Cooney, G., Cubas, M., Danaher, E.M., Diniz, M., Domboroczki, L., Fabbri, C., Gonzalez-Urquijo, J.E., Guilaine, J., Hachi, S., Hartwell, B.N., Hofmann, D., Hohle, I., Ibanez, J.J., Karul, N., Kherbouche, F., Kiely, J., Kotsakis, K., Lueth, F., Mallory, J.P., Manen, C., Marciniak, A., Maurice-Chabard, B., Mc Gonigle, M.A., Mulazzani, S., Ozdogan, M., Peric, O.S., Peric, S.R., Petrasch, J., Petrequin, A.M., Petrequin, P., Poensgen, U., Pollard, C.J., Poplin, F., Radi, G., Stadler, P., Stauble, H., Tasic, N., Urem-Kotsou, D., Vukovic, J.B., Walsh, F., Whittle, A., Wolfram, S., Zapata-Pena, L. and Zoughlami, J. 2015. Widespread exploitation of the honeybee by early Neolithic farmers. Nature. 527 (7577), pp. 226-230. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15757

Human evolutionary genetics
Gerbault, P. and Thomas, M.G. 2015. Human evolutionary genetics. in: International encyclopedia of the social & behavioral sciences (second edition) Elsevier. pp. 289-296

Storytelling and story testing in domestication
Gerbault, P., Allaby, R.G., Boivin, N., Rudzinski, A., Grimaldi, I.M., Pires, J.C., Climer Vigueira, C., Dobney, K., Gremillion, K.J., Barton, L., Arroyo-Kalin, M., Purugganan, M.D., Rubio de Casas, R., Bollongino, R., Burger, J., Fuller, D.Q., Bradley, D.G., Balding, D.J., Richerson, P.J., Gilbert, M.T., Larson, G. and Thomas, M.G. 2014. Storytelling and story testing in domestication. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 111 (17), pp. 6159-6164. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1400425111

Lactose malabsorption and nutrition
Gerbault, P., Liebert, A., Swallow, D.M. and Thomas, M.G. 2014. Lactose malabsorption and nutrition. in: Lomer, M. (ed.) Advanced Nutrition and Dietetics in Gastroenterology Wiley. pp. 202-209

The onset of lactase persistence in Europe
Gerbault, P. 2013. The onset of lactase persistence in Europe. Human Heredity. 76 (3-4), pp. 154-161. https://doi.org/10.1159/000360136

How long have adult humans been consuming milk?
Gerbault, P., Roffet-Salque, M., Evershed, R.P. and Thomas, M.G. 2013. How long have adult humans been consuming milk? IUBMB Life. 65 (12), pp. 983-990. https://doi.org/10.1002/iub.1227

Modeling Recent Human Evolution in Mice by Expression of a Selected EDAR Variant
Kamberov, Y.G., Wang, S., Tan, J., Gerbault, P., Wark, A., Tan, L., Yang, Y., Li, S., Tang, K., Chen, H., Powell, A., Itan, Y., Fuller, D., Lohmueller, J., Mao, J., Schachar, A., Paymer, M., Hostetter, E., Byrne, E., Burnett, M., McMahon, A.P., Thomas, M.G., Lieberman, D.E., Jin, L., Tabin, C.J., Morgan, B.A. and Sabeti, P.C. 2013. Modeling Recent Human Evolution in Mice by Expression of a Selected EDAR Variant. Cell. 152 (4), pp. 691-702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2013.01.016

Evaluating demographic models for goat domestication using mtDNA sequences
Gerbault, P., Powell, A. and Thomas, M.G. 2012. Evaluating demographic models for goat domestication using mtDNA sequences. Anthropozoologica. 47 (2), pp. 64-76. https://doi.org/10.5252/az2012n2a5

Domestication and migrations: Using mitochondrial DNA to infer domestication processes of goats and horses
Gerbault, P., Leonardi, M., Powell, A., Weber, C., Benecke, N., Burger, J. and Thomas, M.G. 2012. Domestication and migrations: Using mitochondrial DNA to infer domestication processes of goats and horses. in: Kaiser, E., Burger, J. and Schier, Wo (ed.) Population Dynamics in Prehistory and Early History: New Approaches Using Stable Isotopes and Genetics. Berlin, Germany De Grutyer. pp. 17-30

Inferring processes of Neolithic gene-culture co-evolution using genetic and archaeological data: The case of lactase persistence and dairying
Gerbault, P., Bollongino, R., Burger, J. and Thomas, M.G. 2012. Inferring processes of Neolithic gene-culture co-evolution using genetic and archaeological data: The case of lactase persistence and dairying. in: Colledge, S., Conolly, J., Dobney, K., Manning, K. and Shennan, S. (ed.) The Origins and Spread of Domestic Animals in Southwest Asia and Europe Walnut Creek, CA Left Coast Press. pp. 37-48

The evolution of lactase persistence in Europe. A synthesis of archaeological and genetic evidence
Leonardi, M, Gerbault, P., Thomas, M.G. and Burger, J. 2012. The evolution of lactase persistence in Europe. A synthesis of archaeological and genetic evidence. International Dairy Journal. 22 (2), pp. 88-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idairyj.2011.10.010

mtDNA and Y‐chromosome diversity in Aymaras and Quechuas from Bolivia: Different stories and special genetic traits of the Andean Altiplano populations
Gayà‐Vidal, M., Moral, P., Saenz‐Ruales, N., Gerbault, P., Tonasso, L., Villena, M., Vasquez, R., Bravi, C.M. and Dugoujon, J.M. 2011. mtDNA and Y‐chromosome diversity in Aymaras and Quechuas from Bolivia: Different stories and special genetic traits of the Andean Altiplano populations. American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 145 (2), pp. 215-230. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajpa.21487

Evolution of lactase persistence: an example of human niche construction
Gerbault, P., Liebert, A., Itan, Y., Powell, A., Currat, M., Burger, J., Swallow, D. and Thomas, M.G. 2011. Evolution of lactase persistence: an example of human niche construction. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 366 (1566), pp. 863-877. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0268

Impact of selection and demography on the diffusion of lactase persistence
Gerbault, P., Moret, C., Currat, M. and Sanchez-Mazas, A. 2009. Impact of selection and demography on the diffusion of lactase persistence. PLoS ONE. 4 (7) e6369. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0006369

Permalink - https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/q39w9/accurate-age-estimation-in-small-scale-societies


Share this

Usage statistics

102 total views
188 total downloads
These values cover views and downloads from WestminsterResearch and are for the period from September 2nd 2018, when this repository was created.